The Lunar New Year, also known as the Chinese New Year, is one of the most significant cultural celebrations in the world. It is a time for families to come together, share traditional meals, and honor their ancestors. Each year is represented by one of the twelve zodiac animals, and in 2023, we will be celebrating the Year of the Rabbit. This animal symbolizes good fortune, peace, and prosperity, and its presence is believed to bring luck and happiness to those born under its sign. As we prepare for this upcoming Lunar New Year, let us explore the rich history and customs that make this holiday so special.
Welcome to the Lunar New Year Festival in Pokémon Go 2023!
During this event, there was an increased chance of lucky trades, as well as a higher chance of becoming lucky friends through each interaction with best friends. Our Researchers combed through their attics and cleaned out the garage to find any unneeded old Pokémon and met up with their friends to find out if the increased rates matched what we observed in previous years.
Comparing to Past Observations
First, let’s address the results of this year’s ongoing observations: trades involving only newly caught Pokémon and interactions between best friends. Our Researchers managed to do 2108 trades during the event where both Pokémon had been caught within the past year, and we found that 9.49% (99% CI 7.9 – 11.2%) of these trades were lucky. Similarly, the rate of becoming lucky friends with best friends when interacting was increased to ~3%.
Looking at the Lucky Rate Cap
Previously, we found out that the non-boosted lucky rate for trades involving two new Pokémon is 5%, and trading older Pokémon increases this chance. In our publication from July 2022, we discovered that the chance for a trade to become lucky doesn’t go higher than 20% and that this cap is reached as soon as the combined age of both traded Pokémon equals 3 years. In order to test if the cap applies to trades with a boosted lucky rate as well, Researchers were asked to trade as many Pokémon as possible where both Pokémon had a combined age of at least 3 years.
Results of the Lucky Rate Cap Test
During the event, our Researchers managed to do 675 trades involving Pokémon with a combined age of at least 3 years, out of which 215 were lucky. This leaves us with a rate of 31.85% (99% CI 27.3 – 36.6%) meaning the lucky rate cap was either increased along with the increased lucky rate or simply ignored during the event. Looking at the combined ages separately, however, the former might be the correct assumption.
What Does This Mean?
The only thing that we can rule out with this data set is that the rate is not simply increased by 5% for each age category. Otherwise we would end up at a lucky rate of 25% for the 3 year category. This suggests that the lucky trade rate may be doubled during the event with an increased rate cap of 30%. Without having data for trades from the 1 and 2 year old categories however we can’t say this with certainty and will have to delay answering this part until the next event with increased lucky trade rates!
Parting Words
Our observations show that the lucky friend rate and the lucky trade rate for recently caught Pokémon (0 years of combined age) were the same as in past years. Intriguingly, though, we found that the 20% lucky rate cap due to Pokémon age did not apply to trades made during the event. Although we don’t know all the details yet, we can definitely say it’s worth keeping older Pokémon (3+ years of combined age) for future events like Lunar New Year! Stay safe on the roads and may the odds be in your favor, travelers!
Welcome, travelers! The Lunar New Year festival returned to Pokémon Go again in 2023. During this event, there was an increased chance of lucky trades, as well as a higher chance of becoming lucky friends through each interaction with best friends! This year, we not only had our usual goal to confirm if the increased rates matched what we observed in previous years, but also had a new mission!
Comparing to past observations
Our Researchers managed to do 2108 trades during the event where both Pokémon had been caught within the past year, and we found that 9.49% (99% CI 7.9 – 11.2%) of these trades were lucky. Similarly, the rate of becoming lucky friends with best friends when interacting was increased to ~3%, as observed during the Lunar New Year Events in 2020 and 2021, a rate significantly higher than the standard ~1% chance.
Looking at the lucky rate cap
Previously, we found out that the non-boosted lucky rate for trades involving two new Pokémon is 5%, and trading older Pokémon increases this chance. In our publication from July 2022, we discovered that the chance for a trade to become lucky doesn’t go higher than 20% and that this cap is reached as soon as the combined age of both traded Pokémon equals 3 years. In order to test if the cap applies to trades with a boosted lucky rate as well, Researchers were asked to trade as many Pokémon as possible where both Pokémon had a combined age of at least 3 years.
Looking at the combined ages separately, however, it seems as though the lucky rate cap may have been increased to 30% during the event. What does this mean for how the increased lucky trade chance actually works? Without having data for trades from the 1 and 2 year old categories however we can’t say this with certainty and will have to delay answering this part until the next event with increased lucky trade rates!
Our observations show that the lucky friend rate and the lucky trade rate for recently caught Pokémon (0 years of combined age) were the same as in past years. Intriguingly, though, we found that the 20% lucky rate cap due to Pokémon age did not apply to trades made during the event. Although we don’t know all the details yet, we can definitely say it’s worth keeping older Pokémon (3+ years of combined age) for future events like Lunar New Year! Stay safe on the roads and may the odds be in your favor, travelers!
The Lunar New Year festival returned to Pokémon Go in 2023, and with it came an increased chance of lucky trades and becoming lucky friends through interactions with best friends. This year, the researchers not only aimed to confirm the increased rates observed in previous years but also to investigate whether the lucky trade rate cap of 20% applied to trades made during events with an increased lucky trade rate.
The researchers conducted 2108 trades during the event, involving only newly caught Pokémon and interactions between best friends. They found that 9.49% of these trades were lucky, which matched their findings from previous Lunar New Year events in 2019, 2020 (except the first day), 2021, and 2022. Similarly, the rate of becoming lucky friends with best friends when interacting was increased to ~3%, as observed during the Lunar New Year Events in 2020 and 2021.
The researchers also investigated whether the lucky trade rate cap of 20% applied to trades made during the event. They conducted 675 trades involving Pokémon with a combined age of at least 3 years and found that the lucky rate was 31.85%. This suggests that the lucky trade rate may be doubled during the event with an increased rate cap of 30%. However, without data for trades from the 1 and 2 year old categories, the researchers cannot say this with certainty.
The observations show that the lucky friend rate and the lucky trade rate for recently caught Pokémon were the same as in past years. However, the researchers found that the 20% lucky rate cap due to Pokémon age did not apply to trades made during the event. This suggests that it is worth keeping older Pokémon (3+ years of combined age) for future events like Lunar New Year.
In conclusion, the Lunar New Year festival in Pokémon Go in 2023 brought an increased chance of lucky trades and becoming lucky friends through interactions with best friends. The researchers confirmed the increased rates observed in previous years and found that the lucky trade rate cap of 20% did not apply to trades made during the event. This suggests that it is worth keeping older Pokémon for future events.
